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Gold market shows resilience as price momentum cools in Q2

31-07-2026   12:05 PM

The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report reveals that total gold demand1 was flat year-on-year at 1,269t, as the gold price eased from the record highs seen at the start of 2026. This pushed demand for H1 2% higher year-on-year to an estimated 2,522t worth US$380bn. Investment in gold ETFs, bars and coins dropped to 262t in Q2, as the lower gold price tempered the strong momentum seen earlier in the year. The decline was primarily driven by 45t of outflows from gold-backed ETFs in Q2, although first-half ETF demand remained modestly positive at 18t. Bar and coin investment was relatively stable, down just 3% year-on-year in Q2, while first-half demand was still 21% higher than at this point last year, supported by an exceptional first quarter. On the other hand, demand in the OTC market, helped by Asian investment, came in at 327t in Q2 and a healthy 571t in H1.2 Central banks and other official institutions added a net 289t to reserves in Q2, up 62% year-on year, as buying picked up across several markets. Despite the stronger second quarter, first-half demand remained below the elevated levels seen in recent years due to weaker activity in Q1.3

The WGC’s Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey showed that 45% of respondents intend to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, highlighting gold’s enduring importance in official reserves. High prices continued to weigh on jewellery demand in Q2, which fell 17% year-on-year as consumers bought less gold and shifted towards lighter products. This pulled first-half volumes lower, but the value of jewellery demand was resilient, rising 22% year-on-year in H1 to a global total of US$86bn. Second quarter total gold supply was unchanged year-on-year at 1,269t, as mine production and recycling diverged. Mine supply rose an estimated 2% year-on-year to 966t, supported by new production from Canada and Chile. At the same time, recycling declined 6% year-on-year despite higher prices.

Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst, World Gold Council, commented: “Gold’s early-year rally reversed in the second quarter, with prices consolidating after correcting from record highs. But the market remained well supported, reflecting gold’s established role as a diversifier and store of value. While gold ETF flows receded in step with prices, continued central bank buying, and growth in OTC investment contributed to total gold demand edging 2% higher across the first half of the year. “For the second half of 2026, investment is likely to drive growth, however the demand mix could shift. OTC activity and demand from Asian investors are expected to play an increasingly prominent role, while Western gold ETF interest may be more closely linked to real yields, US monetary policy expectations and the dollar. Central banks will remain significant buyers, albeit at a slightly slower pace than we’ve seen over the last four years. High prices will keep pressure on jewellery volumes, though consumers may continue to hold rather than sell, with recycling showing little sign of increasing.”

The Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 report, which includes comprehensive data provided by Metals Focus, can be viewed here.

GDT India Factsheet:

India Gold Demand Statistics for 2026 (April - June)

Demand for gold in India for Q2 2026 was at 131.4 tonnes, down by 6% as compared to overall Q2 demand for 2025 (139.7 tonnes)
India’s Q2, 2026 gold demand value was Rs. 198,100 crores, up by 50% as compared to Q2 2025 (Rs. 132,500 crores)

Total Jewellery demand in India for Q2 2026 decreased by 15% to 75.1 tonnes as compared to Q2 2025 (88.8 tonnes)

The value of jewellery demand remained at Rs. 113,210 crores, compared to Rs. 84,200 crores recorded in Q2 2025

Total Bar and Coin demand for Q2 2026 was at 50.3 tonnes, increased by 9% in comparison to Q2 2025 (46.1 tonnes)
In value terms, gold Bar and Coin demand in Q2 2026 was Rs. 75,750 crores, up by 73% from Q2 2025 (Rs. 43,760 crores)

Total gold ETF demand for Q2 2026 was at 4.2 tonnes increased by 49% in comparison to Q2 2025 (2.8 tonnes)

In value terms, gold ETF demand in Q2 2026 was Rs. 6,300 crores, up by 136% from Q2 2025 (Rs. 2,670 crores)

Total gold recycled in India in Q2 2026 was 19.2 tonnes, down by 17% compared to 23.1 tonnes in Q2 2025

Total gold imports in India in Q2 2026 was 98.1 tonnes, down by 23% compared to 127.4 tonnes in Q2 2025

US$/oz average quarterly price in Q2 2026 was US$ 4,506.3 in comparison to US$ 3,280.4 in Q2 2025

INR/10g average quarterly price in Q2 2026 was INR 1,50,744.8 in comparison to INR 94,875.9 in Q2 2025 (without import duty and GST)

Sachin Jain, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council said, "The April-June quarter 2026 reflected the evolving nature of gold demand in India. While total demand moderated by 6% to 131.4 tonnes in comparison to Q2 2025, the total value of demand rose by an impressive 50% to a record ₹198,100 crores, highlighting that consumers continue to prioritise gold even in a high-price environment. They are adapting their purchasing decisions to balance affordability with long-term value. This shift was particularly evident in the jewellery market. Although volumes declined to around 75 tonnes, jewellery demand in value terms grew 34% to ₹113,210 crores, supported by seasonal buying during festivals like Akshaya Tritiya, Gudi Padwa etc. Consumers are becoming more discerning, choosing lighter-weight and lower-carat jewellery, while increasingly leveraging exchange programmes to optimise their purchases.

Investment demand remained encouraging. Bar and coin demand grew 9% year-on-year to 50.3 tonnes, while Indian Gold ETFs attracted 4.2 tonnes of net inflows despite global outflows. These trends reinforce gold's growing appeal not only as a traditional store of wealth but also as a strategic investment that provides stability and diversification in an increasingly uncertain economic environment.

Looking ahead, the festive and wedding season in second half is expected to support demand. While elevated prices may continue to influence buying patterns, Indian consumers have consistently demonstrated their ability to adapt. We expect gold to remain firmly embedded in household savings and investment decisions, underpinned by its enduring role as a trusted store of value and a source of financial resilience. We estimate full year demand to be in the range of 650-750 tonnes.

Courtesy: AOJ DESK NEWS

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